Published on March 31 2021 by the International Journal of Systematic Innovation.
Since it’s conception by Everett Rogers in 1962, the “S-curve” model has allowed for the prediction of market disruption. However, it has consistently failed to predict the timing when disruption would occur. In 2016 Adner and Kapoor provided a framework (“Right tech, wrong time”, published in the November-edition of Harvard Business Review) that links the evolution of an incumbent challenged by a new technology to the evolution of the ecosystem. According to the authors, their model provides better prediction for the timing of disruption.
From a practitioner’s point of view, the question at hand is how to identify the right strategies and subsequent tactics to respond to different disruption scenarios, for both the position of the incumbent and for new entrants.
We propose these answers can be found within the TRIZ body of knowledge, namely in the analysis of trends as well as in the inventive and separation principles. The utilization of TRIZ methods can guide both the incumbent and the contender to suitable strategies in different scenarios of disruption. We have demonstrated this approach with a case study coming from our own work with clients.
This publication summarizes the theory underlying one of our highly successful workshops that helps re-invigorate an organizations product- and service-portfolio and create new opportunities for growth.